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The Safest Bet in Horse Racing Handicapping
Do you know what is a safe bet in horse racing? Perhaps I can explain what I mean by safe. When I write the safest bet, I mean the bet that has the most expected time to win and the least amount of time to reduce your bankroll.
One is not equal to the other and you will understand what I mean if you have been betting on horse racing for a while. Just because you hit a winner every time with a bet, that doesn’t mean it won’t reduce your bankroll and just because you have a bet that won’t quickly reduce your bankroll doesn’t mean you’ll always pay it off. .
Some people may choose the show bet as the safest bet. Show betting, especially on favourites, is a bet with a high entry level, but there are all sorts of favourites. There are warm favorites with high heat, like 5-2 or even 3-1. Those types hit the show’s returns less often than the 2-5 favorites.
Horses at very low odds, such as 4-5 or less, often pay to show, but the payout is often lower because there is a bad pool. If you get a nickel on the dollar with these types, you’re lucky and face a disappointing event horse and you’ll soon be asking, “Where’s the profit?”
Using Dr. Z’s formulas, you can make a small profit on these types of high percentage bets, but you will have to take a lot of risk to get a little. I’m not knocking Dr. Z or his bets, he’s already proven they work, I’m just saying you have to make big bets and risk a lot of money for little return.
One of the problems with show betting is that breakage takes your piece three times. That’s a cheap price. In the long run, taking a shot at beating those 2-5 runners may be the way to go, but statistically, you’ll be losing in the long run.
So where is the safe bet? There is no real “safe” bet because placing bets on horses is risky and that is why they call it gambling, however, there are safe bets. My favorite thing is to find a horse that has done what was asked of it and is the only horse in the race to score on each of the following…
1. won the distance before
2. passed this grade level before
3. ran within 30 days and was within 2 lengths of the last winner
4. won at this stage and distance with this jockey and trainer
5. competes with 3 year olds and up
This is a perfect betting gold mine. It doesn’t come often, but when it does it’s surprising how often the horse isn’t the favorite.
For my money, it’s the safest bet in horse racing and with all the tracks available for betting, you should be able to get enough bets to make your days profitable.
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