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## Football (Soccer) Betting Tip – No Value No Bet

Hunt for value all over the world. It applies to both life and business. And it should work for football betting as well. Most punters fail to understand the importance of value betting. This is the most important BUT also the most misunderstood concept in football betting. Price is the real key to long-term profitability.

**WHAT IS THE PRICE**

Simply put, value is found when you can get something for less than it’s worth. The following illustration will explain this.

You are an antique lover and you are looking for an antique store. You see a beautiful old vase for sale for $100. You know you can resell the vase for at least $120. This means there is VALUE in buying a vase. The key here is yours **INFORMATION** that the vase is actually worth $120.

However, if you are buying a vase with the intention of selling it but **WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE** however much you can sell the vase, then this is not a wise purchase and it is not a price to buy.

The same principle applies to football betting. In sports, the true value of a game outcome is expressed in the probability of that outcome occurring. If you can find the right price **UP** than the chance showed, so you got the price.

So, the prices (or odds) offered by the bookies are related to the probability of that outcome. Now, how do we determine if unusual things have value?

**PRICES (OR ODDS)**

Fair values (or probabilities) are set if the outcome is expected to be a 50/50 situation.

Let’s take the example of coin flipping. As there are two sides to a coin, the probability of heads and tails is 50% each. The formula for calculating the odds in such a 50/50 situation is 100 / 50 = 2. Therefore, 2 dds are called FAIR ODDS.

Therefore, if we bet on a coin-throw, when the value offered is less than 2, then it is worthless because we will lose for sure. However, if the value is higher than 2, say 2.10, it means that the probability of winning is 5% higher (2.10 / 2.00). This is the price.

**HOW TO CALCULATE THE VALUE OF A BEDDO**

Before we know how to find value, we need to first understand how to calculate probability and value.

__Probability calculation__

The formula is:

Odds = 1 / 0dds

Therefore, if the event is offered at 2.50, then it can be

1 / 2.5 = 40% chance of it happening **ACCORDING TO THE SPECTATOR**.

If you guess the ‘true’ chance is greater than 40%, then you’ve got value.

__Calculate the value__

The formula is:

Odds x Percentage / 100 > 1.0 (Figure must be greater than 1.0 to be valid)

In the example above, if you estimate the percentage to be 50%, the calculated value would be:

2.50 x 50 / 100 = 1.25 (This is the value as the number is greater than 1.0)

**HOW TO GET THE VALUE**

The keys to valuing this punting are:

* How accurately you can predict the winning percentage of the result.

* Getting the most out of the event.

Calculating the odds of winning is not an easy task. Finding value is 100% subjective. One may take the odds of 1.20 as value but another may disagree. Some observers feel that for 1.20 issues, the event should have a probability of 83% because they need to win 5 out of 6 1.20 events to be in profit.

So, finding value odds is an individual matter. Sometimes, odds of 1.50 represent value. Sometimes, even 15.00 is not worth shooting.

After researching the general selection criteria, list your betting targets. Then create your own prediction on the percentage of Home wins, draws or Away wins. No strategy is set in stone. You will have to try different methods and over time, you will understand how certain things will influence the result more than others.

Time, experience and practice are essential to ‘perfecting’ your techniques.

**THE END**

If one of your value bets is lost, it does not mean that the bet has no value. A football player must learn to accept that not all bets can win. The bottom line is finding value in your choices. Of course, the higher the number of value bets, the higher the profit you can get.

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